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A magnitude 6.2 earthquake has struck 35 km west of Kaikoura this afternoon.

Details

It struck at 3:36 pm, and has a revised depth of 52 km and a magnitude 6.2. This classes the earthquake as severe but due to the depth of the quake and distance from populated centres, it is not expected to be greatly damaging.

Felt reports

It's been felt moderately from Wellington to Christchurch, but with some reports indicating strong shaking, which is indicative of items falling from shelves. It will have been felt over a wide area. Reports of lighter shaking are in from Auckland through to Dunedin.

Geological setting

The epicentre is in a very remote part of the north-east South Island, which has a very complex geology featuring a number of significant faults. The faulting type is oblique - this is common for these earthquakes in the upper South Island.

Aftershock behaviour

Deeper earthquakes such as this usually have only a few aftershocks. We would not expect any of these to be bigger than about magnitude 5.0.

Relationship to July/August 2013 Cook Strait earthquakes

Yesterday's earthquakes were certainly in the vicinity of the sequence that occurred back in 2013. Today's earthquake is outside that general zone, but we cannot be certain that it hasn't been triggered by stresses from all those quakes over time.

 

Last update 4:55pm on 24 April 2015

Two earthquakes struck off Cape Campbell in Marlborough just after 10:30 am today.

Basic details

Where were they felt?

Both have been reported felt from across the top of the South Island, throughout the lower North Island, and up the west coast of the North Island to New Plymouth. A few reports have also been received from Canterbury. No structural damage would be expected, but a few reports indicating that items may have fallen from shelves have been received.

What sort of earthquake faulting were they?

Analysis of the M5.1 quake shows the fault moved as a 'strike-slip fault', meaning that one side of the fault moved alongside the other.

Could a tsunami have been generated?

These earthquakes are much too small to cause a tsunami in their own right. An offshore earthquake needs to be at least magnitude 7.5 for a tsunami to be considered possible.

Will there be aftershocks?

Only a few small aftershocks have occurred since these two quakes, with the next largest being of magnitude 3.2.

Are these earthquakes unusual?

Over 20 earthquakes greater than magnitude 5.0 occurred back in 2013. The two biggest of these caused damage on both sides of the Strait: a M6.5 in July and a M6.6 in August.

 

Last updated 11:45 am, 23 April 2015

We’ve had a bit of interest in these earthquakes lately, which typically come with the tag line “100 km north-west of White Island”.

 

Looking over the past year, there have been several bursts of activity in this earthquake swarm:

  • June 10 to July 3, max M3.7
  • November 22 to November 29, max M3.9
  • February 23 to the present, max M4.9

The latest activity has provoked more interest, as it features the two largest magnitude quakes. They show in the accompanying map as a cluster, featuring two yellow (“strong”) quakes. The earthquakes show normal faulting, which is typical in this offshore part of the Taupo Volcanic Zone, and is due to the spreading of the crust.

We have been asked whether these quakes are related to White Island. Apart from using White Island as the reference point for the location, there is nothing to suggest that these quakes are changing activity at the volcano, especially as they are typically 100 km away from the island. The earthquake shaking at this distance would not be likely to upset the volcanic system. People in the Coromandel, at a similar distance away, have only reported light shaking for the bigger quakes. There are several undersea volcanoes north-east of White Island and these earthquakes are closer to those than they are to White Island. The earthquakes are at least 50 km away from these other volcanoes and our volcanologists don't think they are likely to be affected by the shaking either. 

Swarms are a feature of the Taupo Volcanic Zone. Some may only last hours, but others like that near Matata in the mid 2000s, went on for many months, with distinct bursts of activity. This northern Bay of Plenty swarm is one of those.

 

Gisborne city has felt a number of earthquakes over the past 18 hours, the largest of magnitude 4.5.

At the time of writing nine quakes likely to have been felt in Gisborne have occurred. All have been between magnitude 2.5 and 2.9, but at noon today one of magnitude 4.5 interrupted this earthquake swarm. This activity is not unusual, but its proximity to a big population centre will have raised local interest. The cluster of grey epicentres are shown on the map at right, with the magnitude 4.5 shown in green (classed as "moderate").

A magnitude 4.9 earthquake occurred north of this area on December 20 2014.

UPDATE: We've added a map so you can see what geographic area we are including in the probability model. Also, we added some pictures of landslides that our team of landslide experts sent to us.

Probabilities 

Our seismologists have been busy crunching the numbers regarding the Wilberforce Earthquake. Here are the probabilities for the aftershock sequence related to the Wilberforce Earthquake:


 

M5.0-5.9M6.0-6.9M ≥7.0
Average
number
Range*

Probability of
one or more

Average
number
Range*

Probability of
one or more

Average
number

Range*

Probability of
one or more

Within 30 days

0.060 - 1

6%

0.0050 - 1

<1%

0.00030 - 1<1%
Within 1 year0.460 - 237%0.040 - 14%0.0030 - 1<1%

This table shows a forecast based on a model from international expert elicitation.

Updated 08/01/2015: Due to this sequence, the probability of a magnitude 5 or above in the next year in this region is approximately one and a half times greater
than what we would normally expect from our National Seismic Hazard model. As the aftershock rates decrease, this difference will decrease also.

All forecasts start 6th January 2015 and are for the region from 170.5-171.9 degrees East and 42.4-43.75 degrees South. 

* 95% confidence bounds.

Geographic area included in the model

Landslides around the area

Our landslide reconnaissance team has been out and about in helicopters checking out the Southern Alps, near the epicentre of the Wilberforce Earthquake. They came back with some great photographic evidence of rockfalls and landslides.  The photos show small to moderate size rock

avalanches close to the Main Divide in the upper reaches of the Unknown Stream catchment (we think this is an excellent name for a stream!). Although these were not observed at the time of the earthquake - because no-one was in the area to our knowledge - their appearance on the snow-pack indicates they are only a few days old at most. As there are several of these, it is a good indication of a common trigger. As there has been no significant rain in the area this only leaves shaking from the Wilberforce earthquake as the cause.

 About the name Wilberforce 

Our large earthquakes get names based on the closest geographic feature or a relevant city/township. This earthquake was located in a very remote area so we named it after the Wilberforce River.  That might be disappointing to some of the more literary minded people out there who thought we might be making a witty reference to the antagonists in classic kiwi novel "Under the Mountain" but...we weren't. Though we always appreciate a good book! Right, back to the science.

The Alpine Fault and the Wilberforce Earthquake

We've received a lot of questions about this! You can see that we addressed this in the scenarios below but we've got a bit more science regarding the stress levels on the Alpine Fault. Essentially, the Alpine Fault did show some change in stress levels from yesterday's earthquake: in some areas this decreased and in a small area, it increased. GNS Science has issued a media release regarding the change in stress levels.

Scenarios 

Based on our understanding of tectonics in the area, data currently available from the sequence, historical observations, and statistical models, our seismologists considered that there are three possible scenarios that could occur over the following weeks. There are very different probabilities for each scenario. Remember, the best thing is to be prepared for whatever happens next.

Note: Scenarios are based on information that is currently available. We will closely monitor on-going earthquake activity and update our scenarios if it is required.

Scenario One - Very Likely (within the next 30 days)

The most likely scenario is for aftershocks to continue to decrease in frequency, with no future large earthquakes. This is consistent with normal aftershock behaviour. We expect aftershocks over a slightly larger region than where aftershocks have already happened. Again, it is very early in the aftershock sequence and we will know more as this sequence develops.   

Scenario Two - Very Unlikely (within the next 30 days)

A very unlikely scenario is that future earthquakes similar to the M6.0 Wilberforce Earthquake (link) may occur within the general region of the main shock. Large earthquakes are not surprising in this area; it is historically a very seismically active place. In fact, it has been affected by a handful of large earthquakes during the last century. These include at least four earthquakes of M6 or greater:

Lake Coleridge earthquake, 27 June 1946 

This magnitude 6.2 earthquake with an epicentre near Lake Coleridge was felt over the greater part of the South Island. It was preceded by two foreshocks and followed by numerous aftershocks, the largest of which had a magnitude of 5.8. These persisted until the end of 1949.

Aftershocks for the Wilberforce Earthquake

Arthur’s Pass earthquake, 18 June 1994 

This magnitude 6.7 earthquake occurred in the Southern Alps with its epicentre 10 km from the township of Arthur’s Pass. The earthquake was the largest in a sequence of earthquakes in the central South Island, which began with the 1992 M5.8 Wilberforce River (yes, Wilberforce is a popular area for earthquakes!) earthquake and was followed in May 1995 by a M6.1 earthquake less than 10 km to the east, and in November 1995 by the M6.3 Cass earthquake located 30 km to the east of the Arthur’s Pass main shock.

Scenario Three - Extremely Unlikely (within the next 30 days)

An extremely unlikely but possible scenario is that the Wilberforce sequence will trigger a larger magnitude quake - a magnitude 7 or greater –on another fault (e.g.  the Alpine Fault). The Alpine Fault is one of the most active crustal faults on Earth. It is already known to have a high probability of rupture over the next 30 years; however it is unlikely that the occurrence of the Wilberforce earthquake has greatly increased this hazard.

About the location of the 6.0 Wilberforce Earthquake

This part of the country is no stranger to strong earthquakes. In the last 100 years, there have been several similar sized and located earthquakes (see above). The tectonics in the area are dominated by the Alpine Fault, where the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates meet, pushing together to form the mountain ranges of our picturesque Southern Alps. Surrounding the Alpine Fault there are numerous known and unidentified faults which, along with the Alpine Fault, take up stresses from the convergence of the Pacific and Australian plates. Find out more about why New Zealand is so shaky here

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  • The Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management advises people to drop, cover and hold during an earthquake. More information about what to do before, during and after an earthquake is at www.getthru.govt.nz
  • The Earthquake Commission advised that as aftershocks continue, it’s important to fix and fasten any large furniture or valuables in homes to keep families safe. One step is to visit the EQC website and look through information in the Fix. Fasten. Don’t Forget section.
  • Your city or district council is responsible for Civil Defence in your area. You can get more information about hazards in your area from your council and on the GNS Science and GeoNet websites.

Last update: 08/01/2014

Time: 1.45 p.m. 

 

 

 

 

The central South Island earthquake has now been revised to magnitude 6.0, and the location has also moved to the west.

The initial location and magnitude were affected by a small (about magnitude 2.0) foreshock just five seconds prior to the main earthquake. This skewed the location further to the east, which also confused the magnitude estimation.

Our duty seismologist has confirmed that this earthquake was not associated with the Alpine Fault. The Alpine Fault is more than 20 kilometres west of the location of this earthquake. We do not currently know which fault the earthquake was on; it may be one of several already identified faults or a previously unknown fault.  You can find out more information about why we may not know a fault exists until an earthquake occurs here.  

The intensity of this quake is considered severe at the location. As of 12:30 p.m., there have already been more than 3,000 felt reports from as far south as Invercargill to the various places mainly in the lower North Island. There have been dozens of aftershocks located so far since the initial earthquake. The largest aftershock so far has been a magnitude 4.7. In typical aftershock sequences where the mainshock is magnitude 6.0, we can usually expect the largest aftershock to be up to magnitude 5.0.

The best advice during an earthquake is DROP, COVER AND HOLD. The Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management has more information about how to respond during an earthquake. 

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Check out the latest list and map of aftershocks.

 

The map to the left shows previous earthquakes of magnitude 5.8 or larger in this part of New Zealand since 1940. The epicentres from the Canterbury earthquakes are shown at right. The five nearest quakes shown are:

M6.2, Thu, Jun 27 1946, 12:34 am

M5.8, Fri, Jun 28 1946, 7:12 pm

M6.7, Sat, Jun 18 1994, 3:25 pm

M6.1, Mon, Jun 20 1994, 1:43 am

M6.3, Fri, Nov 24 1995, 7:18 pm

 

Updated: 12:30 p.m, Tuesday 6 January 2015

 

 

At 11.33 a.m. this morning, a 6.5 earthquake approximately 31 kilometres deep, struck off the northern East Coast, 170 kilometres away from Te Araroa. The earthquake was felt widely throughout New Zealand with more than 800 felt reports within the first 10 minutes. People have reported feeling this quake from Northland to North Canterbury on the South Island.  

The Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management have stated this earthquake has not generated a tsunami.

Bill Fry, our duty seismologist, says that some aftershocks have already occurred but future aftershocks are unlikely to make much of a felt impact on land. It is still too early to tell exactly how the sequence will progress however the most likely scenario is the aftershocks will decay in frequency and be hardly noticeable on land. So far, we've had nine earthquakes in the area that are probably associated aftershocks.

About the earthquake: Current information suggests that the earthquake was located below the mega thrust fault, which is separates the Pacific and Australian plates. This is a highly active region so earthquakes of this size and location are not surprising.  

Felt reports update: Almost 3,200 felt reports have been cataloged throughout New Zealand . We now have felt reports from Dunedin, as far east as the Chatham Islands and as far north as Whangarei. 

Ghost quakes have already been reported in our system, the most noteable one was a 4.8 reported in Hanmer Springs. This has been removed from our system. Any felt reports related to the Hanmer Springs ghost quake will be reassigned to the 6.5 earthquake. 


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This morning's earthquake is a good reminder that these things can happen at any time! Here is where you can get more information about preparing for earthquakes:


 

(Last updated at 4.12 p.m., 17/11/2014) 

(First published at 11.50 a.m., 17/11/2014)

 

A small magnitude 2.7 earthquake occurred just offshore from Motutapu Island in the Auckland region this morning. This isn't a rare occurrence as Auckland does get earthquakes from time to time. But what is a little different is that the earthquake seemed to disappear from the front page of our website. Don't fret, our earthquake watching friends in Auckland! The earthquake didn't disappear; it just didn't meet our threshold to be on the front page of the website.

So far, 50 people have reported feeling this earthquake.

For those of you interested if it is of volcanic origin, it is a tectonic earthquake. 

The last earthquakes in Auckland that were widely felt throughout the region was 17 March 2013, when two earthquakes shook up the area. This was the most "felt" earthquake in GeoNet history with 13,917 reports.

Here are the top earthquakes in or close to the Auckland region over the last 150 years:

Date

 Magnitude

 Depth (km)

3/10/1948

5.0

215

3/06/1937

5.5

25

7/11/1927

5.5

25

26/05/1912

5.7

12

23/06/1891

6.2

12

02/09/1840

5.5

25

01/01/1835

6.5

25

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For more information about earthquakes in Auckland:

Did you know you can follow Auckland Civil Defence and Emergency Management on Facebook? They are also on Twitter @AucklandCDEM. We recommend following them for the latest in emergencies in Auckland!

Two moderate intensity earthquakes have struck a few kilometres west of Waharoa, in the Waikato region, from 5 November to 7 November. Normally, a couple of moderate intensity earthquakes are not newsworthy; but these are slightly less common in this area than other parts of the country. We have had several moderate intensity earthquakes in this area that have been associated with swarms in the past. At this point, It’s still too early to call it a swarm but we know that swarms have happened in this area before, behaving in a similar manner.

The first earthquake was a magnitude 3.6 on the 5 November at 3:37 p.m. (link); we received 275 felt it reports for this earthquake. The largest earthquake so far was a magnitude 3.9 that occurred at 3:43 a.m. on the 7 November (today) and 700 residents throughout the Bay of Plenty and Waikato region reported feeling the quake. These moderate earthquakes have been followed by several smaller ones. We've had only a small number of earthquakes in total; six in two days.  Swarms are common in this area; we had a larger swarm in 2005, approximately 30 kilometres north east of this week’s earthquakes. 

This 2005 swarm near Te Aroha was a lot more active, with more than 30 earthquakes which went on for several weeks. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Gisborne area is no stranger to “silent” earthquakes or, as our seismology friends like to call these: the 'slow-slip event' (SSEs). We've recorded several SSEsover the past decade or so in the Gisborne area but its been quiet for the last 18 months. Two weeks ago, our GPS system started picking up some movement again. After monitoring our equipment closely to ensure we had another SSE going on, we can now confirm that there is an SSE occurring right now in the Gisborne area, and showing signs of being similar to the one in March 2010.

We sat down with Stephen Bannister, one of our top seismologists at GNS Science, to get the lowdown on the events currently going on in Gisborne and what it means for people in the area:

Q.  How frequently do we get SSEs in the Gisborne area?

SSEs large enough to detect occur about every 18 months in the Gisborne area, although these can vary in size a bit. The last SSE of this size in the region occurred back in March 2010, south-east of Gisborne and north-east of Mahia peninsula.

Q. Do you think this SSE will cause more earthquakes? Should we be preparing for more earthquakes in the region?

SSEs sometimes trigger multiple magnitude 2 to 4 earthquakes around their periphery; but in the last two weeks there hasn't been much significant seismic activity observed for this new SSE.  Having said that, the science regarding SSEs is relatively new; we've only been aware of this

phenomenon for the last decade.  The best advice regarding this event is to be prepared for earthquakes anyway; we can get large earthquakes anywhere in New Zealand, it’s just that some areas are more likely than others to get these. You should always be prepared for earthquakes

Q. On the flip side of the previous question, does an SSE mean that we might have fewer earthquakes? Does it relieve the pressure on the faults?

Based on our current understanding: yes. The SSEs do relieve stress in the areas where they occur  on the thrust interface, approximately 15 km below the earth’s surface, as they represent large-scale creep on the thrust fault.

Having said that, SSEs may transfer stress to surrounding areas and potentially trigger earthquakes on their periphery; what the size and strength of those potential earthquakes would be is impossible to predict at the moment. 

Q. How much land movement are we talking about here? Should we be purchasing more beach front property in Gisborne with the hopes of getting extra land out of it?

Well…up to 3 cm can possibly be displaced sideways, which is about the length of a pineapple lump (it's before lunch and I'm hungry). This is mostly an eastwards direction; but less than that in the vertical direction. To compare to the previous SSE in Gisborne in March 2010, some of the GeoNet sites experienced horizontal shifts of up to 5 cm. This new SSE looks smaller than that 2010 SSE. In other words, we are very slowly moving towards Chile's coast. I'm kidding. Mostly. I mean, we might get there in about a billion years or so...never mind. 

 

This means some beachfront property would move slightly towards the dateline but it wouldn’t be much vertically. Beachfront property in Gisborne would likely be unaffected by this SSE.

Q. How do we know when an SSE is occurring?

There is a network of continuously recording GPS stations across New Zealand, which is operated and monitored by GeoNet, which is funded by EQC, GNS Science and Land Information New Zealand (LINZ). These geodetic stations are very sensitive and can detect changes in position of the order of millimetres.  When a SSE occurs, several GPS stations, (which are roughly 20 km apart) are displaced at the same time, both horizontally and vertically. From examining the GPS data we can then calculate the amount of slip involved for that SSE.

Q. So why are studying SSEs so important?

Hopefully, by observing this phenomena, we will gain important insights into why earthquakes occur, where these occur most frequently and how earthquakes are related to each other.  

 

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To find out more information about how to prepare for earthquakes, go to:

 

Dunedin’s shaky past?

Last night, Dunedin and the surrounding area got its first magnitude 4 earthquake in a long time. The M4.1 was widely felt throughout the Otago region, with more than 1,300 felt reports received by GeoNet. This earthquake may have been a bit of a surprise to some people as earthquakes simply aren’t that common in this part of the South Island.  

But these have happened before. We dug through our earthquake files to find out more about Dunedin’s shaky past.

Q. How long ago was the last earthquake in Dunedin?

A. In 1991, a 4.1 struck off the south coast of Dunedin, near an area that had previously experienced a few Magnitude  4 earthquakes.

Q. What was the largest earthquake since 1960 in the Dunedin area?

A. The largest earthquake to occur in the area since 1960 was a 4.9 in 1974, which occurred in a similar area to the 1991 earthquake (see below).

Q. Have we had earthquakes in the same area as last night’s?

A. The earthquake that occurred last night was very similar to one that occurred in 1982; it was in almost the same location and depth.

Q. It felt more intense in some places. Why is that?

A. This earthquake occurred at a depth of 4 km. That makes it very sharply focused but only over a small area. Think of a torch shining down on a table top. If it is close to the table top, the light is strong and sharp - that's like a shallow quake, which feels like a sharp jolt. If the torch is moved further away, the light is more widespread but diffused – that’s like a deep earthquake: widely felt but more wobbly.

Here is a list of historical quakes in Dunedin from 1960 to today:

DateEarthquake Information

1991-02-21

Magnitude: 4.1
Depth: 33 km

1989-07-13

Magnitude: 4.3
Depth: 12 km

1986-10-21

Magnitude: 4.1
Depth: 12 km

1984-06-24

Magnitude: 4.1
Depth: 12 km

1982-12-23

Magnitude. 4.0
Depth:12 km

1982-06-23

Magnitude: 4.2
Depth: 12 km

1974-04-09

Magnitude: 4.9
Depth:12 km

Dunedin earthquake description (from Adams & Kean, 1974)

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The earthquake in the early evening of Tuesday, 9 April, 1974 was the strongest known to have affected the city of Dunedin since its founding in the middle of last century. The earthquake was of moderate magnitude ... and centered close to the city. A large amount of minor damage was caused, and in particular many domestic brick chimneys were damaged. The main earthquake was generally felt out to Oamaru, Roxburgh and Balclutha, with isolated reports from as far afield as Waipapa Point and Gore.

Damage was almost entirely confined to the Dunedin area ... From standard felt report forms submitted to the Seismological Observatory, and a visit to Dunedin two months after the earthquake, it was established that the intensity reached MM 7 in the worst affected areas of Dunedin. These were mainly the southern suburbs on the alluvium between Otago Peninsula and St. Clair. Little damage beyond that to domestic chimneys occurred even in these areas, but chimney damage was consistent and widespread, and although the standard of construction was commonly poor ... Chimney damage occurred, but less densely, over most of the rest of the city, including the hill suburbs, but was usually more superficial and restricted to fall of pots and plaster.

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While earthquakes are not that common in Dunedin, people still need to be prepared for these to occur. Someday, we may have a large earthquake in the area and it helps if everyone is prepared for it. To find out more about preparing for earthquakes, go to:

A magnitude 6.2 earthquake struck off the south-west tip of the South Island this evening. It occurred before a quarter past six, and was centred at the shallow depth of 10km. Tonight's earthquake is too small to have created a tsunami.

Earthquakes in the Fiordland region are due to the collision of the Australian and Pacific plates. The location and size of this one is almost identical to an earthquake on December 23 2013, nearly ten months ago. Both earthquakes were reverse faulting or thrust mechanisms resulting from the Australian plate pushing (subducting) beneath the Pacific plate. Fiordland sits upon on the Pacific plate.

The Fiordland area is a very productive region for big earthquakes, but its remoteness means that the shaking has usually lost its damaging capability by the time it has reached the nearest localities such as Tuatapere, Queenstown and Haast. Within 20 minutes over 600 people had reported the earthquake, with no more than moderate shaking. The reports were largely confined to the southern part of the South Island.

Other recent notable quakes in this region were:

 

A strong earthquake occurred 15 km west of the settlement of Pongaroa just after twenty to three this morning.

As shown on the accompanying map, it occurred a little to the east of the epicentre of the M6.0 Eketahuna quake earlier this year. It is the third earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or more to strike this region of New Zealand, with the third one occurring at the end of March in the vicinity of Waipukurau.

Over 2,000 felt reports had been submitted within the first hour of the quake, but with only one report of any damage at Terrace End, in Palmerston North, by that time.

Its epicentre close to the January shake is the main scientific point of interest. There had been very few, and only very minor, aftershocks by 4 am, 100 minutes after the earthquake.

Multiple “ghost quakes” have appeared on our seismic sensors this morning after the 6.9 Kermadec Islands earthquake (revised from 7.2) shook Raoul Island earlier this morning. 

What is a “ghost quake”?

“Ghost” quakes appear on our network typically after a large regional source earthquake. We have very sensitive seismic equipment that picks up the various waves that earthquakes create and we can pick up these waves even if it is very far away. For example, we also picked up seismic waves from the Alaska quake this morning. Our equipment gets confused by these waves and interprets these as being a smaller, locally-sourced earthquakes close by.  

Why do we get “Ghost Quakes”?

These quakes are an unfortunate side effect of getting information out to the public as quickly as possible, instead of waiting up to a quarter of an hour for a person to locate and ensure these are authentic earthquakes. This started when we introduced “GeoNet Rapid”; the up side is that the system is highly efficient and quick with earthquake reporting times of just minutes after the quakes.

It is sharply arriving S-waves - that our automated system confuses for P-waves - that are causing the incorrectly reported earthquakes. Our seismologists are easily able to see the confusion and gradually mop up the false earthquakes on the website.

How can we stop “Ghost Quakes”?

We are working on it but it's tricky. If we make the system too picky on the quakes it reports, we might not get rapid information about real earthquakes that occur. If we let it report on whatever information it picks up, we get “ghost quakes”. At GeoNet, we have erred on the side of speedy reporting of everything because we know how important it is to get information as quickly as possible to everyone.

Having said that, we are working on finding out what we can do to better identify them  and so exorcise  “ghost quakes” from our system. Until then, please be patient with us, and keep up the sense of humour, New Zealand!

 (Image: provided by Stuff.co.nz) 

It's a question we get a lot here at GeoNet given that all of New Zealand's significant earthquakes in the past few years - Canterbury, Cook Strait and Eketahuna - have struck on previously unknown faults. And the answer is... complicated.

There are currently four simple ways to tell if a fault exists: we can see it (land deformation), we've heard about it (it's in our written or oral histories), we've dug into the ground and can see it in the soils and rocks, or we've recorded an earthquake on it (read below why this isn't necessarily useful for finding large faults). If it's not one of those four ways, it becomes difficult to know if a fault exists in an area and if it can cause a significant earthquake. There is a fifth way but I'll get to that in a moment...

How often do earthquakes happen on previously unknown faults?

Unfortunately the answer is a lot; a magnitude 6-7 earthquake occurring on an already identified fault is the exception rather than the rule. Luckily, the odds of larger earthquakes occurring on identified faults are much better; once we look into magnitude 7.8+ earthquakes, researchers are confident that all faults in New Zealand capable of these sized quakes have already been identified and mapped. Why? Because we can see them clearly in our landscape. A big earthquake requires a fault of significant length; large faults with the potential to generate magnitude 7.8+ earthquakes - like the Alpine Fault - will form a significant feature of New Zealand's landscape and are therefore much easier to find.

Earthquakes are happening all the time - don't they show us where faults are?

As we all well know after the Canterbury quakes, parts of the country can be relatively quiet for decades but still capable of large quakes; we'd need 20,000 years' worth of earthquake records to have the complete picture!

Every earthquake happens on a fault, and with a searchable database of over 480,000 earthquakes we know where a lot of faults are. The trouble is that all these earthquakes don't nicely line up and illuminate individual sub-surface faults. The accompanying map showing just three years of shallow earthquakes in the middle of the country illustrates this. Also, as large quakes are infrequent, only 30,000 of the 480,000 are magnitude 4+ quakes so it's impossible to know whether the small quakes are occurring on a small fault, or they're small quakes occurring on a small portion of a larger fault.

Our current New Zealand active faults database contains 532 mapped faults that are capable of magnitude 6+ earthquakes. Although the amount of known active faults has increased significantly in the last few decades, there are still a large number of unknown faults capable of producing large earthquakes. Some research conducted by Dr. Andy Nicol at GNS Science suggests that there could be as many as 3500-4000 faults around the country capable of producing magnitude 6+ earthquakes, though the vast majority of these faults will be in remote areas of the country.

How come we, the people paid to know where faults are and what will happen, don't know?

The reason that so many faults are still undetected is that faults capable of magnitude 6-7 earthquakes aren't present at the Earth's surface and are therefore difficult to map. Earthquakes generally originate at depths greater than 5km, so only the very large, long-lived faults fracture rock all the way up to the surface. Faults that do not reach the surface are called 'blind' faults, and we aren't the only country with this problem. Other seismically active places around the world also have to contend with significant earthquakes occurring on these unknown blind faults. One famous example was the magnitude 6.7 Northridge Earthquake that struck suburban northern Los Angeles in the early morning of 17th January 1994. The quake resulted in 60 deaths, and more than 40,000 damaged buildings. Although it was widely known that California has many faults, this particular fault and its proximity to the densely populated city was unknown.

Finding all of the potentially thousands of blind faults in New Zealand is currently impossible. Geophysical surveys - similar to rudimentary MRI scans - are the way we traditionally find blind faults. These surveys look to find layers of rock offset below the surface. Although the technology does exists for us to go out and find most blind faults capable of large earthquakes, currently it would be prohibitively expensive to do this over the whole country. Even using this technology, faults which move very infrequently, like the Greendale fault - one of the faults responsible for kick-starting the Canterbury earthquake sequence - are particularly hard to identify as the subsurface rock layers are minimally offset.

Scientists do sometimes carry out such geophysical surveys to understand earthquake risk and to gain a better understanding of New Zealand's subsurface, and generally focus on finding faults that have the highest potential for devastation, especially in areas near high population and/or high likelihood of earthquakes. Geophysical surveys are also carried out by industries (such as oil and gas) and are utilised by scientists looking for earthquake generating faults. Surveys from the oil industry were used to locate faults around the Canterbury Plains (the Greendale Fault was not found, but other faults were known pre-2010). So this approach certainly isn't perfect.

So what do we do all day if we can't tell you where all faults are?

Researchers tackle the problem of unknown faults in a few ways. Firstly, they understand that knowing where these individual faults are only goes so far; we'd also need to know how often large quakes reccur on that particular fault, and when the last big one was on that fault. Research focusing on tectonic regions as a whole can offer more relevant insights into different areas' earthquake potential. We know that areas like Wellington and the Alpine Fault accumulate more strain at a faster rate from the collision of tectonic plates than other areas of the country (and therefore must release this strain more often via earthquakes). Secondly, as large earthquakes are inevitable (but infrequent), researchers focus on ways to mitigate the effects, such as building design and developing resilient communities.

Right now, it is like playing a constant game of catch-up with the earth, knowing that it has billions of years ahead of you and you only have 50 years of research behind you to unravel its secrets. We want to be able to tell everyone one day where all the faults are in New Zealand, when these will rupture and how big they will be, but until we can do this, it is important for all of us to be prepared for earthquakes.

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