There are very different probabilities for each scenario; some of these are more concerning than others. We recognise that while these scenarios may increase anxiety in people living in the area of the north-east corner of New Zealand, the best thing is to be prepared. Remember: If you feel a long or strong earthquake and you are on the coast, evacuate immediately.
|East Cape region long-term aftershock probabilities|
|Within 30 days||4||1 - 9||99%||0.4||0 - 2||32%||0.04||0 - 1||4%|
Issued at noon, 12 September 2016 for coming month.
Aftershock probabilities read from the table:
Within the next month:
The forecast starts from noon 12th September 2016 and is for the region of the upper East Cape and offshore (see map).
Preparing for earthquakes and tsunami
We appreciate that these scenarios may be concerning, especially scenario three. While it might seem like preparing for such large earthquakes is a waste of time, preparing for emergencies and making your home quake-safe can and does save lives.
Visit our friends at the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management and their new preparedness website www.happens.nz. Also, find out how to quake-safe your home at EQC's website. Many local and regional councils have tsunami evacuation zones maps online, so check those out if you want to know more.
About our scenarios
After reviewing and watching carefully, we’ve developed these scenarios based on our understanding of tectonics in the region, data from the current quakes, historical observations, and statistical models. The likelihood of these scenarios will change over time, based on the activity over the coming days. Be aware there is always a level of uncertainty within our models.